2011 PhD course on Engineering Risk and Decision Analysis

The course takes place on Mondays and Thursdays 13:00-15:00 (2 hours) in the period between 24 October and 12 December at building 118, room 151.   

 

Objective

This PhD course introduces the basic concepts and practical techniques on structural reliability analysis, risk analysis and decision analysis in engineering applications. Through the course, participants will acquire knowledge and skills on the abovementioned analyses, which serve as a basis for advanced study and state-of-the-art research related to, but not restricted to, structural dynamics, structural reliability analysis, risk assessment, and engineering decision making under uncertainty.

 

Course description

Download from here.

 

Course plan and lecture materials   

Date  Lecture  Subject Lecture material   
October 24 Lecture 1  Introduction and overview

PDF

Pretest 

 
October 27 Lecture 2  Engineering decision analysis 

PDF 

 
October 31  Lecture 3  First and second order reliability methods 

PDF

Supplement 1

Supplement 2 

 
November 3  Lecture 4 

Monte Carlo integrals 

PDF   
November 7  Lecture 5  System reliability analysis  PDF  
November 14 Lecture 6 Time variant reliability analysis  PDF   
November 17 Lecture 7 The JCSS probabilistic model code  PDF 
November 28  Lecture 8 

Basis for design of structures  

PDF   

November 24 

Lecture 9  

Bayesian probabilistic network (BPN)

PDF (Custer)

 
December 1  Lecture 10 

Influence diagram (ID)

PDF

Exercise 

 
December 5  Lecture 11  Large scale natural hazard risk analysis PDF   

December 8 

Lecture 12 

Real-time decision analysis

PDF   
December 12  Lecture 13 

Issues in engineering decision analysis

PDF

Schubert (2009)

Nishijima (2009) 

 
       

Lecture materials will become available either before or after each lecture depending on the teaching method used in each lecture.

 

Assessment

The assessment is made on the basis of two assignments and a report. The assignments and the report must be submitted by e-mail to Kazuyoshi Nishijima by the deadlines, which will be announced in due time. In case they are hand-written, they must be scanned and submitted.The successful participants will acquire 5 ECTS points.

 

Homework  Download          Submission deadline 
Assignment 1         

PDF 

       

31 January 2012 

Assignment 2 

 

PDF  31 January 2012 

Report 

See material

of lecture 11 

31 January 2012 

 

 

 

Responsible person: Assoc. Prof. Kazuyoshi Nishijima.