Sebastian Thöns holds the lecture in "Probabilistic Modelling in Civil Engineering".

The course on Probabilistic Modelling in Civil Engineering introduces the basic concepts on probability and probabilistic modelling with emphasis on civil engineering applications. Through the course, participants will acquire knowledge and skills on probabilistic modelling, which serve as a basis for further study and research related to, but not limited to, probabilistic mechanics, structural reliability analysis, risk assessment and ultimately for engineering decision making under uncertainty from strategic, tactical and operational perspectives.

Students who have met the objectives of the course will be able to:

    • Summarize data with descriptive statistics
    • Explain the definition and concept of random variables/​vectors/​processes
    • Select appropriate distributions of random variables/vectors for static random phenomena
    • Estimate distribution parameters
    • Verify estimated probabilistic models
    • Define limit state functions with basic random variables for given failure modes
    • Perform reliability analyses using the First Order Reliability Method or Monte Carlo Simulation
    • Explain the fundamental concept of reliability-based design
    • Model uncertain phenomena within the Bayesian framework
    • Formulate and analyse engineering decision problems under uncertainty
    • Quantify the Value of Information

Please see the DTU course base for further information.


Sebastian Thöns and Michael H. Faber organise the JCSS Advanced School course on Risk and Decision Analysis in Engineering. The JCSS Advanced School provides a deep and thorough insight in the latest developments in the concepts and tools for probabilistic structural reliability engineering and risk informed decision making.

Please the JCSS website for further information.